Paul Krugman’s 5-13-25 column provides a key insight into the relationship between renewable energy and fossil energy. Renewables are competitive, even when we don’t take into account the hidden subsidies society provides fossil fuels by tolerating the externalized environmental damage. If a driller can’t get at least $60 a barrel for oil produced, it doesn’t pay to drill. Gas has a similar threshold of profitability. So when the energy industry waxes poetic about the benefits of drilling, look for the dodge and the gimme. The driller needs a premium price for the energy he mines. And the cost of renewables will continue to drop.
In the case of shale, it’s all about prices. Drilling new shale wells is expensive. In fact, Trump’s vision of drastically lower oil prices never made any sense, because any large drop in oil prices would make new shale wells unprofitable. And since production from any given shale well drops quickly over time, anything that caused new drilling to fall substantially would quickly translate into declining oil production.
How low would prices have to go to shrink the U.S. oil industry? Recently the Dallas Fed did a survey which suggested that drilling in many major fields would stop if the price per barrel fell below the low 60s:
And that was before Trump’s tariffs raised costs, so the critical price is probably higher now. And guess what: oil prices right now are at a level where we can expect production to fall. Here are oil futures:
Source: Bloomberg
Why did oil get cheap? Look at the sudden drop on April 2, aka Liberation Day, when Trump first announced extreme tariffs. It’s obvious that oil prices are down thanks to pessimism about the global economy, which in turn is tied to Trump’s trade war. And by the way, that war is by no means over. A new analysis by the Yale Budget Lab finds that the damaging effects of Trump’s tariffs are only modestly mitigated by his surrender to China.
And as for renewables: Trump hates them, wind power in particular. He offers crazy justifications for that hatred — did you hear about his claim that offshore wind farms kill whales? — but it’s pretty clear that he has been nursing an irrational grudge ever since he was unable to stop a Scottish wind farm that he thought ruined the view from a golf course he owns.
Oh, and I’m pretty sure that MAGA types in general dislike renewable energy because they don’t consider it manly.
So what will be the economy-boosting effects of drill, baby, drill? Nil, baby, nil.
No regard for the obstacles deservedly placed in the path of businesses that exploit natural resources. It is all about commerce and profits. The greater public good is a distant priority.
GOP Advances Bill to Fast-Track Fracking, Logging and Mining on Public Lands
The legislation would make it harder to file legal challenges against controversial mines and pipelines.
Footnote: The source of the above article is Truthout, an extremely left-biased source. Although they don’t usually publish lies, they do omit context and considerations that tend to favor the right.
Pennsylvania Health Advocates Say Gov. Shapiro Has Let Residents Down on Fracking Protections – Inside Climate News
Public health advocates assessing Josh Shapiro’s first two years as Pennsylvania’s governor concluded that he hasn’t done enough to protect residents from the damaging effects of hydraulic fracturing for natural gas—despite charting a roadmap for such actions almost five years ago while he was attorney general. Environmental Health Project (EHP), a Pittsburgh-based nonprofit, said Shapiro […]
The PR firms and energy lobby work relentlessly to promote fracking. They have outsized influence on legislators, particularly at the state and local levels. When the rest of us are disengaged or complacent, bad things happen. Consider Ohio . . .
Huge majorities in Ohio oppose fracking our state parks, but state leaders just ignore all concerns • Ohio Capital Journal
Who do Ohio lawmakers represent in the fracking free-for-all carving up acres of our state parks and public land for oil and gas money? They sure as heck don’t represent the people. Public resistance to fracking in Ohio State Parks is almost universal.
The Energy Industry influence on politics is reminiscent of the tobacco lobby and the gun lobby. Politicians fear opposing them. Voters must discern which candidates are least likely to allow more damage to be done by the “drill baby, drill” crowd.
Fracking still stains Dimock as candidates spar over gas drilling
Susquehanna County environmental activists hope new environmental research center will controversial technology’s future use
The fossil fuel industry and the “mailbox money” crowd don’t want to stop drilling and pumping despite the proven damage to local life quality and property. They are ignoring the looming climate disaster. Here are some articles representing points of view.
If the environment and/or fracking is a make/break issue for you, vote even if neither candidate stands against fracking. Choose the candidate whose judgment and character you trust. Who is most likely to listen to voices like yours and do the right thing in day-by-day environmental decisions after thoughtfully weighing the costs and benefits to all concerned?
What is fracking and why is it a big deal in the Harris-Trump battle?
Vice President Harris’s past stance on fracking has garnered significant attention since she became the Democratic nominee for president. Running in the Democratic presidential primary in 2019, Har…
Harris says she won’t ban fracking. What to know about the controversial topic
Both presidential candidates are against fracking bans, which is once again being wielded as a political issue to play to working-class voters. Here’s a quick refresher on the topic.
Buried in the body of one of the Lithium stories are these cautionary words:
Even if the process of extracting lithium proved to be cost-effective, Quigley said, it should not be used as a justification to keep drilling, though it was “inevitable” that the industry would try to use the finding that way. “It’s still not a reason to continue to drill, because it’s a waste product from fossil fuel extraction,” he said. “The economy has to be carbon free by 2050.”
Extracting lithium doesn’t solve the ongoing problem of what to do with the highly toxic wastewater produced by fracking, which contains salts, metals and radioactive elements. “There’s no way to clean this stuff up,” Quigley said. “You might be able to get something beneficial out of it. But you still have really nasty wastewater that you’ve got to get rid of.”
Quigley was reminded of previous claims made about the economic usefulness of the oil and gas industry’s wastewater in Pennsylvania. Spreading wastewater from conventional drilling on roadways to suppress dust was once considered “a beneficial reuse,” but now faces scrutiny for the risks it poses to the environment and human health, including water contamination and harm to aquatic wildlife. “That has proven to be a sham,” Quigley said. “Some beneficial reuses turned out not to be so beneficial.”
“You might be able to get something beneficial out of it. But you still have really nasty wastewater that you’ve got to get rid of.”
— John Quigley, a fellow at the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy and a former secretary of the Pennsylvania DEP and the state’s Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, as quoted in the article below.
Fracking wastewater has “shocking” amount of clean-energy mineral lithium
40% of US need for lithium could be covered by Pennsylvania’s fracking byproduct.
My family has deep roots in the original Chautauqua — my wife calls it summer camp for grownups. For many decades people have pilgrimaged to this small community for intellectual, spiritual, and physical renewal. Alas, COVID-19 forced cancellation of the program on Chautauqua Lake near Jamestown, New York.
But be of good cheer, it’s free and you can participate from home starting Monday.
Don’t miss the Chautauqua Lecture Series …Climate Change: Prioritizing Our Global and Local ResponseHow we talk about climate change is rapidly shifting. But amid the ongoing political debates, how are we — and should we be — responding? All events are at 10:45 a.m. unless noted.Monday, June 29: Christine Todd Whitman, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, on “Government, Economics and Climate”Tuesday, June 30: Janis Searles Jones of Ocean Conservancy on “The Ocean and the Climate: How to Save Both”Wednesday, July 1: Katharine Wilkinson of Project Drawdown on “How to Reduce Greenhouse Gases”Thursday, July 2: Former UN official Amb. Christiana Figueres on “The State of Global Environmental Action”Please note a special start time of 11:30 a.m. for this programFriday, July 3: Geoffrey Kemp and Amb. Barbara K. Bodine discussing “The Geopolitics of Climate Change and the Environment”
Government, Economics and the Climate – Climate Change: Prioritizing our Global and Local Response – CHQ Assembly
Christine Todd Whitman opens the week highlighting the role of government in combating climate change, what climate action looks like in economic terms and how Americans across the political spectrum can come together around collective action. Whitman, the first female governor of New Jersey, a…
Conversation over lunch or coffee is a big part of the Chautauqua Experience. At Pennswood, the community where I live, we are organizing Zoom/Conference Call discussion groups for those interested. If you want to participate in one of these, please use the contact form to let me know.
