Many people see stewardship of our environment as a moral issue. The world’s great religions call their followers to love one another and be stewards of all creation. Climate disruption has moral and social justice implications that are the common concern of all faithful people. The forum announced in the flyer below affords a great opportunity to explore and discuss how faith informs our efforts to ensure a safe healthy planet for future generations.
The call to environmental stewardship is nearly universal. Citizens Climate Education has published a book of statements by world faith leaders titled Faith Based Statements on Climate Change. Copies are available from them – 1330 Orange Avenue #300, Coronado, CA 92118; 609 437-7142.
132 Page book of Statements by World Faith Leaders.
Hilary Lewis has used a FLIR Gasfinder camera to actually photograph the releases of toxic VOCs at oil and gas drilling sites around the US. She and her colleagues have amassed some 150 videos and produced a short film to document the pollution of our air. Most of this nasty stuff is not visible to the naked eye, but with the special camera Hilary uses, one can see it clearly. Her film shows how it’s done, and also presents interviews with people who have suffered the ill effects. I recommend that you view it to put a face on the statistics and data that prove fracking can’t be done safely.
You can visit the website and browse through as much of the raw footage as you like. It’s not pretty, but better we know what fracking brings than wait and see.
Methane, the primary component of natural gas, exists in great quantities as methane hydrate trapped as slush in the permafrost both on land and under the Arctic sea. For at least 20 years climate scientists have known that global warming could accelerate the thawing of the permafrost, amplifying and accelerating the warming trend caused by humans and natural events.
(Global distribution of methane averaged over 2011 by NASA/AIRS. Note the very high concentrations in the Arctic region. For this map, the highest concentrations occur in the Yedoma region of Russia, a region of multiplying methane emitting tundra melt and Thermokarst lakes [see below]. Image source: NASA/AIRS.) ~credit: Robert ScribblerThough it eventually breaks down, during its life cycle in the upper atmosphere methane is 84 times as damaging as carbon dioxide as a contributor to warming. Both gasses act like an atmospheric blanket that lets sunlight in, but keeps the heat from radiating back into space, but methane is 20 time as potent in causing the planet to heat up. Methane eventually breaks down but carbon dioxide persists until plants convert it to carbon and oxygen.
Methane instability is almost universally recognized as an important risk factor to life as we know it on earth. Some scientists estimate Arctic releases will add about 34% to the methane humans cause to be released this century. But recently there has been disturbing evidence suggesting that the models are underestimating the rate of release of Arctic methane as global warming happens. In 2011 two Russian scientists observed huge plumes of methane bubbles erupting from the Arctic sea. Subsequent investigation points to shifts in warmer ocean currents thawing and releasing ancient stores of methane hydrate.
The word “instability” refers to the prospect of starting a warming chain reaction where the thawing of methane hydrate alone is sufficient to sustain global warming without human input. That’s the methane precipice – irreversable thawing of frozen methane. Some refer to this as a feedback loop – the more methane, the faster the thaw, which in turn releases more methane, which in turn … We’ve built a house of cards and we are racing to quantify just how far we can push warming before it tips and methane instability brings us crashing down.
The on-the-surface observations are corroborated by NASA satellite technology that maps methane release, and also by aircraft air sampling that detects higher than normal local concentrations of methane in the air. None of this converging evidence is encouraging, and much of the research has only been published in the last couple of years. It’s my personal take that models as recent as 2007 are underestimating the thaw. When the newest information is processed we’ll know better, but will we act?
At the same time, it’s becoming clear that we have been underestimating the amount of methane that the gas and oil industry leaks into the air. As I write this, aircraft monitoring projects are scanning Pennsylvania. Similar projects have already documented that releases in Texas are 50% higher than previously believed. In the fog of our collective ignorance and denial, we are running full speed toward the methane precipice, heedless of the danger.
Sea rise that inundates coastal areas all over the globe is one of several long range consequences. Me – I’m 75 and I’ll be long dead before it happens. But my grandchildren will experience the effects, and their kids will be living in a very different world where the shape of the continents has changed and inland weather is markedly different. Many creatures will not adapt. It’s not a happy trend to contemplate unless we get smarter very fast.
Market forces have combined with political opportunism to bury good sense. We subsidize fossil fuels to a greater degree than we do sustainable energy, tilting the playing field in the wrong direction. Unbridled development of shale gas and oil is creating oversupply and driving down prices. Consequently sustainable non-carbon energy is the high priced alternative … in the short term.
Given the consequences of using it, fossil energy is far too cheap for our own good. A gradual increase in fossil fuel cost would shift the market to support and foster better renewable, non polluting, safe energy. The needed renewable technology has been feasible since 2007 and its cost has been steadily dropping. These days renewable energy is the noble thing to do, but taking the long view, it is also the frugal thing to do. The price we pay at the pump does not include the costs of climate change. We are wantonly squandering the heritage of future generations while dancing on the edge of an abyss. There is no “free ride.”
A few far-sighted leaders are embracing the need to make adjustments. These would take the form of correcting the artificially low price of non-renewable energy. The strategy is actually rather simple: end subsidies and assess fees for the environmental costs that don’t presently get priced in to what we pay for fossil energy. One such strategy is CCL’s Carbon Fee and Dividend – legislation that would add an annual escalating fee to fossil fuels and return the money to families. It’s not unlike the petroleum fees Alaska distributes to state residents. The eventual negative effects on the fossil fuel sector would be more than offset by the positive stimulus of the dividends paid. Economic modeling shows middle and low income families coming out money ahead and a net growth in jobs.
Such re-balancing of the energy playing field harnesses market forces to make innovation and investment in clean energy increasingly attractive, driving down the cost of renewable sources relative to fossil fuels. The point here is to recognize that there are practical strategies available that we should be doing now. Concern about the methane precipice should motivate us even if high-minded environmental stewardship doesn’t.
Drilling for gas and oil has always been a gamble. In conventional wells the geologists try to identify locations where gas and/or oil collect as they seep through layers of rock. The layers of rock deep in the earth are deformed by the movement of the tectonic plates forming folds and shears that over the millennia create pockets where the liquids and gas pool. Shale gas differs because it is distributed in porous rock and must be given pathways to flow to the well. Enter hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” which makes cracks and props them open so gas can escape. Some places may be better than others to drill, but the bore hole needs only hit a fairly large target layer where shale gas lies trapped and then turn horizontally and follow it for as many as four miles.
Discovery is not the only “crap shoot” in the shale gas business. The profitability of the produced gas is a function of market price and demand. Just now the prices are low. Middle Eastern suppliers, anticipating the success of shale gas and oil have dropped prices to stem the flow of cash into the shale energy sector. To some extent that strategy is working. As new sources around the globe come on line increased competition will make matters worse. The Economist Magazine predicts that there will be blood:
“No wonder that the fight over the finances of America’s shale-oil industry has turned nasty. In one corner are shortsellers, including David Einhorn, a hedge-fund manager whose scalps include Lehman Brothers. They argue that “fracking”—the business of blasting oil out of rocks using water, sand and chemicals—is a bottomless pit into which too much cash has been thrown.
The ingenuity of America’s shale industry is admirable, the state of its finances awful. (click to read more) The Economist 7/4/15
In the other corner are America’s oil pioneers, who say that shale can thrive even though the benchmark American oil price has dropped from over $100 a barrel last year to $57 today. The oilmen are backed by plenty of other investors who are still pumping money into shale firms: some $35 billion of equity and bonds has been raised since December.
Both sides have a point. It makes sense to be cheery about the long-term prospects for shale energy—and to be queasy about today’s bunch of fracking firms (see article).”
Savvy investors arrive early and leave early before the bubble bursts, but the crowd usually buys in late causing the bubble to swell and then burst.
For communities where shale gas is being developed these financial uncertainties are not good news. A bankrupt company won’t be paying out “mailbox” money, and may be tempted to cut corners in the construction of their wells. The industry can’t operate with zero impact; the best that they can promise is to minimize impact and to mitigate the damage they do afterwards. Obviously one can’t count on a bankrupt organization to keep its promises. When the money stops the roughnecks move on, the equipment gets repossessed and the locals are left with the derelicts.
If the prediction that shale gas is an investment bubble is correct, then the big losers will be the regions ravaged by the rush to cash in. The Wall Street bettors will find another game, but the local communities? C’est laissez-faire.
We are in the way. The Marcellus Shale development to the west has created a demand for more pipelines to carry gas east to export terminals and urban markets. These big pipes cut wide swaths through natural areas and disrupt developed areas. PA State Representative Steve Santasiero forsees that pipeline zoning presents a big challenge for municipalities, and possibly a more immediate one that fracking.
If you want to get an idea why visit State Impact – Pennslyvania and read their excellent article on the regulatory mess and the consequent challenges faced by municipalities.
Flyer Announcing 8/3 Update and Supervisors’ Visit
We’re asking everyone to come out on Monday August 3 to hear an update on our efforts to prevent premature adoption of the jointure drilling zone ordinance. We’ll meet at six (6PM) at the Wrightstown Friends Meeting at 535 Durham Road, PA 413 North. After a short update there will be time for comments and questions. Then at seven (7PM) all will go over to the Wrightstown Municipal Building (2203 Second Street Pike) for the Supervisors’ Meeting that starts at 7:30PM. As before a few people will present our concerns.
We’ve been in touch with the Supervisors and anticipate a good reception and discussion. It’s clear that they are not eager to see fracking come to our area. We want to be a resource and provide support for a good strategy to deal with the threat fracking represents to our quiet enjoyment of our beautiful Bucks County homes and surroundings.
No one can or will guarantee that a gas well will never leak. You can find industry video narrated by one of those deep Walter Cronkite-like voices that tell you about the extraordinary precautions drillers take to protect the aquifer from migration of nasty stuff between layers.
You can even cherry-pick to find industry statistics claiming that leakage is very rare, less than one percent (not true). But you won’t find anybody putting their money on the line that the well they want to drill into your aquifer won’t someday spoil your well water.
You will find that extraordinary measures have been taken to shield drillers from liability and regulatory culpability. Exemptions have been carved out of the body of law intended to protect the environment. You will also find plenty of examples where the industry has obtained gag orders and non-disclosure settlements hoping to keep a lid on public knowledge of mistakes. There are even some egregious examples of perverse use of baseless law suits and even phony criminal charges to discourage public participation showcasing problems with drilling. As the cops say, “you can beat the wrap, but you can’t beat the ride.” (The “ride” is the whole process of being arrested and charged.) Even if one is obviously innocent of doing wrong, legal defense is costly and even if you win you end up out-of-pocket.
What’s behind all this? Independent peer-reviewed studies as well as industry studies show that at least six percent (6%) of fracking wells leak early in their life cycle. I strongly suspect that all wells will leak eventually – maybe not in 10 or 20 years, but in 100?
Let’s stick with what we know for the moment. Drilling puts a large hole through half a mile of ancient rock formations to reach the gas rich layer under Bucks County. It’s deeper elsewhere. At the surface level, where the aquifer is, at least three concentric steel casings line the bore hole. Cement under pressure is forced into the space between the outer casing and the rock to prevent gas and/or liquid from traveling vertically outside of the casing and moving between geologic layers. This cement is supposed to keep the nasty stuff out of the drinking water layers.
This is the fundamental weakness of the drilling system. Think about the cement you see in sidewalks, driveways, and foundations. It cracks. Cement is rigid and very strong in compression, but it doesn’t have good tensile strength. It doesn’t necessarily bond permanently to other materials. Voids, where there is no concrete seal, may be left when concrete is pumped into the annulus or gap around the well casing. It’s not like the footing for a house; you can’t look and see. Even with no disturbances cracks can open as the cement cures or long after it’s fully set. But there are disturbances. Seismic events happen regularly. The earth moves.
The drilling process itself involves huge rotating drill bits that pound and vibrate to chip the rock and open the hole. Boring generates heat that is carried away from the bit by the flow of drilling mud, a wet slurry pumped down the drill pipe bathing the cutting bit and carrying the chips and heat back up and out. So there is are temperature changes. Steel and cement don’t expand at the same rate. Drilling itself vibrates the upper casings components and the earth as the bore hole is extended downward. Time is money and sometimes drilling operators don’t wait long enough for the fresh cement to cure to full strength, fracturing the “green” cement as they resume drilling. Rust forms on the mild steel casings as dampness, chemicals, and natural acids do their work. The annulus space outside the casing isn’t clean. All of these conditions act to break the bonds between the casing and the cement, and loosen the cement from the bore hole walls.
Repeated fracking cycles subject the casing and the cement seal to strain. It’s hard to imagine that a steel pipe half a mile long doesn’t flex and move under these extreme pressure changes. The same hydraulic forces that are fracturing rock where the lateral pipe is perforated are also trying to fracture the seal around the well casing. Blowouts sometimes happen.
The casings come in sections and thread together. For more than fifty years the joints have been a problem when put under pressure. Engineers have optimized the shape an pitch of threads and used sealants. In spite of considerable experience and ingenuity, casing joints still fail.
Then there is outright reckless disregard for the consequences of leaks. Drillers have paid huge fines and settlements for blatant disregard for good practice and regulations. Critics say that inspection and enforcement is understaffed and too lax. Drillers sometimes even refuse to allow inspectors onto the drill site.
None of the precautions taken by even the most ethical drillers can ensure that a bore hole once created can be sealed permanently. Consequently every new well increases the probability of contamination of the aquifer forever. That probability starts with the first well at one-in-twenty odds (1:20) and the odds get worse over time. Each new well adds another leak possibility. It’s like playing repeated rounds of Russian roulette first with one gun, then two, and so on.
This is not a game we should want to play. The more I know about fracking, the more it looks like a bargain with the Devil. No matter how appealing the cheap energy is, in the long run we lose.
[revised for clarity and to update links 7/10/15, 7/11/15.]
Attorney Matt McHugh who prepared the proposed drilling ordinance was quoted as saying that “there are no known deposits of natural gas or oil in any of the three townships…” Until someone actually makes a producing well, deposits are termed “undiscovered” but that does NOT mean they aren’t known to be there. Back in 2011 the USGS did a study of the South Newark Basin Shale formation which included data from one well never put into production. James Coleman, a researcher for the U.S.G.S said, “We think there’s a 90 percent probability that there’s gas in the South Newark Basin and that gas is between 363 billion cubic feet and 1,698 billion cubic feet.”
Coleman was speaking to Susan Phillips of State Impact who wrote an excellent article you’ll find on the StateImpact site. I’d say the odds are only slightly less than a sure thing that somebody will want to drill in Bucks if given the opportunity.
Some of the advocates for Fracking seek to dismiss the concern about health risks as fear mongering. This document, assembled by health professionals, organizes and summarizes the facts available more than a year ago. There are even more now (see Links). However this compendium has been compiled to be accessible for decision makers and the public.
Systematically Organized Evidence of Fracking Risks. Source: http://concernedhealthny.org. (Click this image to download/read)
There is no question that fracking is dangerous and damaging to the environment. Someone said that “its hard to make someone see something when their paycheck depends on not seeing it.” We have too many who have been blinded by the prospect of “mailbox money” that comes from deep in the earth. Now we see that there is no free ride.
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